diff --git a/hermes_cli/main.py b/hermes_cli/main.py
index 71bf80fbc0..00fa300204 100644
--- a/hermes_cli/main.py
+++ b/hermes_cli/main.py
@@ -5234,6 +5234,7 @@ from hermes_cli.update_cmd import (  # noqa: F401
     _reload_updated_runtime_modules,
     _resolve_pre_update_backup_mode,
     _resolve_stash_selector,
+    _restart_phase_failure_is_incomplete,
     _restore_stashed_changes,
     _resume_windows_gateways_after_update,
     _run_logged_subprocess,
diff --git a/hermes_cli/update_cmd.py b/hermes_cli/update_cmd.py
index 117a1544df..a74e36428b 100644
--- a/hermes_cli/update_cmd.py
+++ b/hermes_cli/update_cmd.py
@@ -5184,6 +5184,13 @@ def _cmd_update_impl(args, gateway_mode: bool):
                 pass
 
         gateway_fleet_restart_incomplete = False
+        # Snapshot of gateways running before we touch anything. Stays empty
+        # until we successfully import the probe and are about to stop/drain —
+        # so an exception raised before we touch any gateway keeps this empty
+        # (nothing to fail closed on), while a failure after we have stopped a
+        # discovered gateway lets the handler fail closed on an empty survivor
+        # probe rather than reporting a clean update (#78574).
+        _pre_restart_gateway_pids: list | None = []
 
         # Auto-restart ALL gateways after update.
         # The code update (git pull) is shared across all profiles, so every
@@ -5363,6 +5370,17 @@ def _cmd_update_impl(args, gateway_mode: bool):
             relaunched_profiles = []
             externally_supervised_profiles = []
 
+            # Record which gateways are running before any stop/drain, so a
+            # later failure that leaves the survivor probe empty can still be
+            # recognised as "a running gateway was stopped and did not come
+            # back" rather than "nothing was running" (#78574). Best-effort:
+            # if the probe itself raises, leave the snapshot as-is (the
+            # survivor probe's own None result already fails closed).
+            try:
+                _pre_restart_gateway_pids = list(find_gateway_pids(all_profiles=True))
+            except Exception:
+                _pre_restart_gateway_pids = None
+
             # --- Systemd services (Linux) ---
             # Discover all hermes-gateway* units (default + profiles)
             if supports_systemd_services():
@@ -5849,8 +5867,16 @@ def _cmd_update_impl(args, gateway_mode: bool):
             # output the user relies on never printed. Don't let that pass for
             # a clean update: surface it and treat the fleet as stale unless we
             # can positively prove no gateway is running (#78574).
+            #
+            # A positive-empty ``_surviving`` is only proof-of-safety when
+            # nothing was running before we touched anything. If a gateway was
+            # discovered pre-restart and none survive now, it was stopped and
+            # its replacement was never verified — the same fail-open contract
+            # this fix closes — so we must still fail closed on ``[]``.
             _surviving = _surviving_gateway_pids_after_failed_restart()
-            if _surviving is None or _surviving:
+            if _restart_phase_failure_is_incomplete(
+                _surviving, _pre_restart_gateway_pids
+            ):
                 gateway_fleet_restart_incomplete = True
                 _warn_gateway_restart_phase_aborted(e, _surviving)
                 if gateway_mode:
@@ -5920,6 +5946,27 @@ def _cmd_update_impl(args, gateway_mode: bool):
 
 # --- Hoisted from the body of _cmd_update_impl (self-contained, no closure state) ---
 
+def _restart_phase_failure_is_incomplete(surviving, pre_restart_pids) -> bool:
+    """Whether an escaped gateway-restart-phase exception must fail the update.
+
+    Fail closed unless we can positively prove the fleet is safe:
+
+    * ``surviving is None`` — the survivor probe could not determine state
+      (typically the freshly-pulled ``hermes_cli.gateway`` no longer imports,
+      one of the ways the phase aborts). Assume stale.
+    * ``surviving`` non-empty — a gateway is still running pre-update code.
+    * ``surviving == []`` — nothing is running now. That is proof-of-safety
+      ONLY when nothing was running before we touched anything. If a gateway
+      was discovered pre-restart (``pre_restart_pids`` non-empty, or ``None``
+      meaning the pre-state could not be read), it was stopped without a
+      verified replacement, so we still fail closed (#78574).
+    """
+    if surviving is None or surviving:
+        return True
+    # surviving == []: safe only if we know nothing was running beforehand.
+    return pre_restart_pids is None or bool(pre_restart_pids)
+
+
 def _print_items(items, label, key, fallback_key=None):
     if not items:
         return
diff --git a/tests/hermes_cli/test_update_gateway_restart_aborted.py b/tests/hermes_cli/test_update_gateway_restart_aborted.py
index 4d7f6574e5..3c15b8cdb9 100644
--- a/tests/hermes_cli/test_update_gateway_restart_aborted.py
+++ b/tests/hermes_cli/test_update_gateway_restart_aborted.py
@@ -16,6 +16,7 @@ import sys
 import types
 
 from hermes_cli.main import (
+    _restart_phase_failure_is_incomplete,
     _surviving_gateway_pids_after_failed_restart,
     _warn_gateway_restart_phase_aborted,
 )
@@ -51,6 +52,37 @@ class TestSurvivingGatewayProbe:
         assert _surviving_gateway_pids_after_failed_restart() is None
 
 
+class TestRestartPhaseFailureIsIncomplete:
+    """The fail-closed decision behind the survivor probe.
+
+    An empty ``surviving`` probe is only proof-of-safety when nothing was
+    running before the phase touched anything. A gateway that was discovered
+    pre-restart, stopped, and never verified back up leaves the probe empty at
+    exactly the unsafe moment — the fail-open contract #78574 exists to close.
+    """
+
+    def test_stale_when_a_gateway_still_survives(self):
+        assert _restart_phase_failure_is_incomplete([4321], [4321]) is True
+
+    def test_stale_when_survivor_probe_is_undeterminable(self):
+        assert _restart_phase_failure_is_incomplete(None, []) is True
+
+    def test_stale_when_preexisting_gateway_stopped_without_replacement(self):
+        # The gap egilewski flagged: a gateway was running, we stopped it, and
+        # the post-failure probe is empty because the replacement never came
+        # back. `[]` here means "gone", not "safe".
+        assert _restart_phase_failure_is_incomplete([], [4321]) is True
+
+    def test_stale_when_pre_restart_state_could_not_be_read(self):
+        # Unknown pre-state (probe raised before we recorded it) also fails
+        # closed on an empty survivor set — we cannot prove nothing was running.
+        assert _restart_phase_failure_is_incomplete([], None) is True
+
+    def test_clean_only_when_nothing_ran_before_and_none_survive(self):
+        # Positive control: truly no gateway anywhere, before or after.
+        assert _restart_phase_failure_is_incomplete([], []) is False
+
+
 class TestAbortedRestartWarning:
     def test_warns_with_recovery_command_and_cause(self, capsys):
         _warn_gateway_restart_phase_aborted(