diff --git a/agent/context_compressor.py b/agent/context_compressor.py
index cea803e34f..54493469d8 100644
--- a/agent/context_compressor.py
+++ b/agent/context_compressor.py
@@ -25,7 +25,8 @@ from agent.context_engine import ContextEngine, sanitize_memory_context
 from agent.error_classifier import FailoverReason, classify_api_error
 from agent.micro_compaction import MicroCompactionMixin
 from agent.model_metadata import (
-    MINIMUM_CONTEXT_LENGTH, get_model_context_length, estimate_messages_tokens_rough, estimate_tokens_rough
+    MINIMUM_CONTEXT_LENGTH, get_model_context_length, estimate_messages_tokens_rough, estimate_tokens_rough,
+    strip_opaque_replay_items,
 )
 from agent.redact import redact_sensitive_text
 from agent.turn_context import drop_stale_api_content
@@ -1132,7 +1133,8 @@ def _estimate_msg_budget_tokens(msg: dict, charge_stale_thinking: bool = True) -
     tokens = text_tokens + 10  # +10 for role/key overhead
     tokens += sum(estimate_tokens_rough(str(tc)) for tc in msg.get("tool_calls") or [] if isinstance(tc, dict))
     for key in _ALWAYS_REPLAYED_BUDGET_KEYS:
-        tokens += _serialized_length_for_budget(msg.get(key)) // _CHARS_PER_TOKEN
+        # Opaque ciphertext is priced only by real usage (same rule as the preflight estimator).
+        tokens += _serialized_length_for_budget(strip_opaque_replay_items(msg.get(key))) // _CHARS_PER_TOKEN
     if not charge_stale_thinking:
         return tokens
     # Wire ships at most ONE generic thinking key (reasoning_content wins);
diff --git a/agent/model_metadata.py b/agent/model_metadata.py
index 1a13b76df7..db66bf1a33 100644
--- a/agent/model_metadata.py
+++ b/agent/model_metadata.py
@@ -2079,6 +2079,18 @@ def _count_image_tokens(msg: Dict[str, Any], cost_per_image: int) -> int:
     return count * cost_per_image
 
 
+def strip_opaque_replay_items(items: Any) -> Any:
+    """``codex_reasoning_items`` with ``encrypted_content`` blanked for local token estimation.
+    The ciphertext is priced by the provider's own count, never by its bytes (a compaction
+    checkpoint alone can be 5M chars, #100611); only real usage prices it."""
+    if not isinstance(items, list):
+        return items
+    return [
+        {k: ("" if k == "encrypted_content" else v) for k, v in item.items()} if isinstance(item, dict) else item
+        for item in items
+    ]
+
+
 def _wire_message_shadow(msg: Dict[str, Any]) -> Dict[str, Any]:
     """Shadow of a message holding only what the provider actually receives.
     * ``api_content`` SUBSTITUTES ``content`` (mirrors ``turn_context.substitute_api_content`` exactly):
@@ -2086,7 +2098,11 @@ def _wire_message_shadow(msg: Dict[str, Any]) -> Dict[str, Any]:
       other shape would UNDERcount — the dangerous direction.
     * Base64 images become a placeholder; ``_count_image_tokens`` charges them flat.
     * ``reasoning`` never ships as-is (request builds pop it after optionally promoting it into
-      ``reasoning_content``); counting both inflated estimates up to +53%."""
+      ``reasoning_content``); counting both inflated estimates up to +53%.
+    * Opaque provider blobs (``encrypted_content`` on codex reasoning / compaction items) are
+      ciphertext the provider prices by its OWN token count, never by bytes; a native compaction
+      checkpoint alone can be 5M chars (#100611). They contribute 0 here: only real usage ever
+      prices them, and the usage anchor carries that price forward."""
     sidecar = msg.get("api_content")
     sidecar_wins = isinstance(sidecar, str) and bool(sidecar) and msg.get("role") in ("user", "assistant")
     _rc = msg.get("reasoning_content")
@@ -2108,6 +2124,10 @@ def _wire_message_shadow(msg: Dict[str, Any]) -> Dict[str, Any]:
             ]
         elif k == "content" and isinstance(v, dict) and v.get("_multimodal"):
             shadow[k] = v.get("text_summary", "")
+        elif k == "codex_reasoning_items":
+            shadow[k] = strip_opaque_replay_items(v)
+        elif k == "encrypted_content":  # a Responses reasoning/compaction item passed as a row
+            shadow[k] = ""
         else:
             shadow[k] = v
     return shadow
diff --git a/tests/agent/test_budget_reasoning_details_exclusion.py b/tests/agent/test_budget_reasoning_details_exclusion.py
index f546cb0911..697d4f3723 100644
--- a/tests/agent/test_budget_reasoning_details_exclusion.py
+++ b/tests/agent/test_budget_reasoning_details_exclusion.py
@@ -73,18 +73,16 @@ class TestBudgetExcludesReasoningDetailsEnvelope:
             f"thinking prose charged twice (delta {both - once} tokens)"
         )
 
-    def test_codex_reasoning_items_still_charged(self):
-        """Codex Responses genuinely replays these on every request (#55572);
-        the exclusion is scoped to reasoning_details only."""
+    def test_codex_encrypted_content_is_opaque_to_local_estimates(self):
+        """Ciphertext is priced by the provider's own count, never by its bytes (a native
+        compaction checkpoint alone is ~5M chars, #100611): the budget walk and the trigger
+        estimator both charge it ~0, so only real usage ever prices it (#104462)."""
+        from agent.model_metadata import estimate_messages_tokens_rough
+
         base = {"role": "assistant", "content": "hi"}
-        loaded = dict(
-            base,
-            codex_reasoning_items=[{"encrypted_content": "e" * 20_000}],
-        )
-        assert (
-            _estimate_msg_budget_tokens(loaded) - _estimate_msg_budget_tokens(base)
-            > 4_000
-        )
+        loaded = dict(base, codex_reasoning_items=[{"type": "reasoning", "encrypted_content": "e" * 20_000}])
+        assert _estimate_msg_budget_tokens(loaded) - _estimate_msg_budget_tokens(base) < 50
+        assert estimate_messages_tokens_rough([loaded]) - estimate_messages_tokens_rough([base]) < 50
 
 
 class TestReasoningDetailsTextChars:
diff --git a/tests/agent/test_replay_budget_accounting.py b/tests/agent/test_replay_budget_accounting.py
index e801c40d3b..9f61d61fe7 100644
--- a/tests/agent/test_replay_budget_accounting.py
+++ b/tests/agent/test_replay_budget_accounting.py
@@ -44,9 +44,9 @@ class TestChargeStaleThinking:
         # The delta is the thinking text — a substantial chunk, not noise.
         assert full - stale > 300
 
-    def test_codex_sidecar_always_charged(self):
-        """Wire-replayed Codex blobs (incl. native compaction checkpoints)
-        must stay in the budget even for stale turns — #55572's invariant."""
+    def test_codex_sidecar_is_not_thinking_text(self):
+        """The Codex sidecar is not stale thinking: the stale path drops nothing from it. Its
+        ciphertext is priced only by real usage (#104462), so the row costs the same as a bare one."""
         msg = _assistant(codex=True)
         full = _estimate_msg_budget_tokens(msg, charge_stale_thinking=True)
         stale = _estimate_msg_budget_tokens(msg, charge_stale_thinking=False)
@@ -54,7 +54,7 @@ class TestChargeStaleThinking:
         bare = _estimate_msg_budget_tokens(
             {"role": "assistant", "content": "done"}, charge_stale_thinking=False
         )
-        assert stale > bare + 500  # blob still charged on the stale path
+        assert stale < bare + 100
 
     def test_default_is_conservative_full_charge(self):
         msg = _assistant(thinking=True)